Gold prices rose on Tuesday thanks to a weaker dollar as investor attention shifted to U.S. inflation data due out later this week that could shed light on the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut of the year.

 

Spot gold rose 0.4 percent to $2,179.43 an ounce. U.S. gold futures added 0.2% to $2,202.7.

 

Gold hit a record high last week after Fed policymakers said they still expect to cut interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024, despite recent strong inflation readings.

 

"Unless there is significant news indicating an acceleration in the pace of rate cuts, gold is unlikely to reach a new record high before Easter," said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree. "However, we expect new records to be broken by the end of the year," he said. WisdomTree expects gold prices to hit $2,350 in the first quarter of 2025.

 

Traders estimate a 64% probability that the Fed will start cutting rates in June.

 

The dollar index, meanwhile, fell 0.4% against its peers, making gold less expensive for holders of other currencies. The focus will now turn to the core US personal consumption expenditure price index data due for release on Friday.

 

Gold prices have also been supported by increased physical demand from Chinese households amid some skepticism about the outlook for the country's real estate and stock market. This helped offset weaker demand from price-sensitive Indian buyers.

 

Purchases by central banks, which are less price-sensitive than retail consumers, also remained strong, providing additional support for the metal. China's central bank has been the most active buyer since the end of 2022.

 

"The motivation for their gold purchases is to diversify away from G7 currencies, after these currencies were used as weapons in 2022 after the (Russia-Ukraine) war," Shah said.

European markets were flat on Tuesday as global investors await the start of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting.

 

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index was down 0.01% in early afternoon trading, while sectors traded in mixed territory. Shares of automakers were up 1%, while utilities were down 0.6%.

 

U.S. stocks opened mixed ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting in Washington. Recent inflation reports may prompt the Fed to signal that interest rates will remain higher for longer than expected. Fed funds futures are currently forecasting a 99% probability that the Fed will leave benchmark interest rates unchanged this week, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

 

Meanwhile, it was a dramatic night for Asia-Pacific markets after investors priced in the latest central bank monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of Australia.

 

The Bank of Japan officially ended its negative interest rate policy at its March meeting, raising interest rates for the first time in 17 years and raising the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0% to 0.1%. The bank also lifted its yield curve control policy, a historic change in policy. Markets in the Asia-Pacific region were mostly down on Tuesday following the move.

 

U.S. stocks opened mixed on Tuesday as Wall Street awaited the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting.

The S&P 500 Index fell 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%.

 

- Karen Gilchrist

Shares of consumer goods giant Unilever rose Tuesday after the company announced plans to split its ice cream division, which includes Ben & Jerry's and Magnum, as part of a restructuring that will affect 7,500 jobs.

Unilever shares rose 5.6% immediately after the news was released, before paring back the gains slightly, rising 2.9% in the afternoon.

On the other hand, Reckitt Benckiser shares fell 3.9%, cutting gains from the previous session, after a lawsuit was filed in the U.S. over Enfamil infant formula.

 

- Karen Gilchrist

Atos shares fell more than 18% and were suspended Tuesday morning after the French IT company announced that Airbus had ended talks to buy its cybersecurity business.

As a result, Atos is postponing the publication of its 2023 earnings to "evaluate strategic options," the company said in an update to the market.

"Atos is analyzing the current situation and is actively evaluating strategic alternatives that will take into account the sovereign imperatives of the French state," the statement said.

 

- Elliott Smith

While investors are focusing on artificial intelligence companies, Berenberg strategists see one sector as a relatively bargain.

The investment bank noted that investors in the sector outperformed the market by an average of 108% - or more than doubled their money - when they invested on three occasions in the past when valuations were as low as current levels.

Pro-crypto Republican candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has officially withdrawn from the United States presidential race, marking the end of his nearly year-long campaign. Ramaswamy, who gained attention for his outspoken stance on cryptocurrency and blockchain technology, announced at a press conference in Des Moines, Iowa. Despite his efforts to bring a pro-crypto agenda to the forefront of American politics, Ramaswamy cited challenges and an uncertain path to victory as the primary reasons for suspending his presidential campaign. He, however, expressed his decision to throw his weight behind former President Donald Trump, endorsing him for the upcoming election.

 

Vivek Ramaswamy’s Pro-Crypto Agenda

 

Vivek Ramaswamy entered the political arena as a relatively unknown candidate but quickly captured the attention of the crypto community with his bold policy proposals surrounding Bitcoin and other digital assets. Notably, he was the only presidential candidate to introduce a comprehensive crypto policy framework, unveiling “The Three Freedoms of Crypto” on November 16. The policy aimed to protect crypto developers from being held liable for user actions, establish clear regulatory guidelines for new cryptocurrencies, and prevent federal agencies from imposing restrictions on self-hosted wallets. His pro-crypto agenda was built on the belief that these technologies could foster economic growth, innovation, and financial inclusion. Ramaswamy argued that a forward-thinking approach to digital assets could position the United States as a global leader in the crypto space.

 

Ramaswamy’s commitment to the crypto cause was further evident as he actively participated in the “Stand With Crypto” campaign initiated by Coinbase Global Inc (NASDAQ: COIN). He engaged in discussions surrounding digital assets and blockchain-related issues. In December, Ramaswamy took a strong stance against the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and its Chair, Gary Gensler. He criticized the SEC’s failure to keep pace with crypto regulation and expressed disappointment that Gensler couldn’t affirm before Congress that Ether should be considered a commodity.

 

Ramaswamy pointed to the limitations of the existing regulatory framework, citing incidents like those involving Sam Bankman-Fried at FTX as evidence that the current structure is ill-equipped to govern the crypto space.

 

The Future of Crypto in US Politics

 

Ramaswamy’s departure from the presidential race leaves a void in terms of a candidate explicitly championing pro-crypto policies. His proposed regulatory reforms included a reduction in the SEC workforce and advocating for a more relaxed regulatory approach within the crypto industry. Ramaswamy’s vision extended to treating most cryptocurrencies as commodities outside the SEC’s jurisdiction. Members of the crypto community were quick to pay their respects to Ramaswamy, with Nic Carter, a general partner at Castle Island Ventures, hailing him as the “most talented” Republican candidate in a generation.

 

However, with Ramaswamy’s exit from the presidential race, the crypto community is left wondering who will champion their cause and advocate for sensible and forward-thinking regulation in the United States the way Ramaswamy attempted. As the 2024 election season unfolds, the fate of crypto-friendly policies in American politics remains uncertain.

Binance, one of the world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchanges, has opened up a localized crypto exchange in Thailand. According to a recent announcement by Nirun Fuwattananukul, CEO of Gulf Binance, the new exchange has satisfied all regulatory requirements and is immediately open for trading. The public launch of the exchange means that residents of Thailand who are interested in trading crypto may now do so on the new platform. There is a caveat, though. Not all residents will be able to access the Binance TH platform. Registration is limited to residents with the Thai National Digital ID. This means that foreigners living in the country may not be able to access the platform.

 

Nirun, who expressed delight in the eventual launch, recalled all the efforts that were put into creating the exchange. His statement read in part: “Over the past year, we have been working closely with Thai regulators, putting substantial effort into detailed planning.”

 

Binance Thailand Offerings

 

Binance Thailand came to be a result of a collaboration between Binance and Gulf Energy Development’s subsidiary Gulf Innova. The new platform will offer digital asset exchange services with Thai baht trading pairs. It has also integrated with local banks in Thailand to expand its reach. According to a company’s release, Binance Thailand will also be partnering with Binance Kazakhstan to offer brokerage services. That will be done under the supervision of Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

 

It might be worth noting that, more than the aforementioned offerings, Thailand sees the new exchange as a significant step towards its goal of becoming a major player in the ever-evolving global digital finance landscape. This was shared in a release by Binance CEO Richard Teng. Teng reiterated the immense value that blockchain technology and digital assets bring to world finance, especially in the area of financial inclusion. He then added that Binance Thailand may just have set the stage for Thailand to play a huge part in the world’s finance. Binance has always hammered on its commitment to security, transparency, and the delivery of second-to-none services. So, it has yet again used the new venture to remind users of its resolve to stick by those commitments.

 

Thailand’s Ministry of Finance gave the nod of approval to Binance last May. Securing the license meant that it could act as a regulated crypto exchange and broker, as Coinspeaker previously reported. Notably, Binance Thailand is the latest crypto exchange to be launched in Southeast Asia. Recall that firms like Coinbase, Zipmex, and Gemini also recently established their presence in the same region. Meanwhile, Binance is working not only on its geographical expansion but also on the expansion of the spheres of its activities and offerings. On January 15, it published its 2024 report, spotlighting key growth areas such as the Bitcoin ecosystem, applications in the ownership economy, AI, real-world assets, on-chain liquidity, and institutional adoption.

Legal representatives for former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky have filed a motion in federal court seeking the dismissal of charges related to commodities fraud and market manipulation. The motion, filed on January 12 in the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, urges the judge to drop two felony counts expected to be brought against Mashinsky at his trial in September 2024.

 

The filing argues that the second count of commodities fraud is “repugnant” and “inconsistent” with the first count of securities fraud, particularly in the government’s treatment of cryptocurrencies. The defense contends that it is illogical to view Celsius’s Earn Program as both a security and a commodity simultaneously, urging the court to dismiss one of the counts.

 

The official filing notes: “It is inconsistent and illogical to view the Earn Program as a security for purposes of Count One, and a commodity for purposes of Count Two. It is not clear if the government intends to argue that Celsius’s Earn Program constituted the purchase of a security and the sale of a commodity at the same time […] the government cannot have it both ways and the appropriate remedy is dismissal of one of the counts.”

 

Lawyers Demand Removal of Market Manipulation Charges

 

Furthermore, Mashinsky’s legal team has put forward arguments for the dismissal of count six, which pertains to market manipulation, citing “lack of fair notice”. They contend that the US government has essentially “invented” a criminal offense that otherwise stands as a civil violation. Alongside seeking the dismissal of two out of the seven criminal charges facing the former CEO, the defense has also requested the exclusion of information related to the Celsius bankruptcy from the case. The filing notes: “References to Celsius’s bankruptcy should be stricken from the Indictment. For the same reasons, the government should be precluded from introducing evidence of the Celsius bankruptcy during trial.”

Crypto businesses looking to expand all over the world often face the challenge of needing to secure approval from various regulators to get started. As we’ve seen in the past, this is not always the most straightforward process and can come with a horde of challenges. Thankfully for OKX Middle East Fintech FZE, the Middle Eastern subsidiary of OKX, it will be able to begin its operations in the UAE. This comes as the company has secured a license from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA).

 

OKX to Begin Operations in the Middle East

 

This news was announced on January 16, 2024, and with it, the company can begin offering spot services and spot pairs to both institutional and qualified retail customers. According to OKX, it will begin operations within the next few weeks and these services can be accessed from both its main exchange and its app. The company’s management has also made it clear that it will be ambitious in pursuing the UAE market. “This allows us to offer services to UAE residents, which we’re going after, including spot trading and fiat-related services, which means deposits and withdrawals of local currency, United Arab Emirates dirham (AED),” said Rifad Mahasneh, OKX General Manager for the MENA Region.

 

Some of the trading pairs that UAE residents will have access to include AED/BTC and AED/ETH. It is quite fitting that OKX is targeting the UAE market considering just how accepting it has been of cryptocurrency in the past. Back in 2016, the country launched a blockchain strategy, making it one of the first in the world to do so. This was followed up with a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency in 2018 which, again, preceded the rest of the world. Historically, the UAE has been a hub for tech development and entrepreneurship and its population has seemed very open to new innovations. Even now, the UAE has the highest public adoption of cryptocurrency, which means that digital assets are well-known to the public.

 

With this sort of foundation, companies like OKX have a viable environment to engage in crypto businesses, as well as the support of the government.  In 2022, the UAE formed the Virtual Asset Regulatory Authority (VARA), which granted the license to OKX. The aim of VARA is to develop regulations that help the crypto sector grow and position the UAE as a global leader in the cryptocurrency industry while still protecting the consumer. Around the world, we have seen countless examples of countries being indifferent, nonchalant and outright hostile to the crypto industry. Fortunately, it seems to not be the case with the UAE, to the benefit of all involved.

Google Cloud, the cloud computing and data storage unit of the technology giant Google, has entered into a strategic partnership with the Flare blockchain to join the network as a validator. The cloud unit has become the latest corporate institution to join the growing list of validators on Flare, verifying blocks, confirming transactions, and proposing new updates to the protocol. These efforts contribute to bolstering security and fostering the overall growth of the Flare blockchain ecosystem.

 

Google Cloud to Provide Infrastructure Solutions to Flare

 

According to a Monday press release, Google Cloud will also serve as a key infrastructure provider for the Flare Time Series Oracle (FTSO). This oracle, known for its high decentralization, plays a pivotal role in providing accurate price data on the Flare network. The move makes the company the 100th organization to embrace FTSO while serving as a validator for the flare network. The active participation of Google Cloud in both validation and infrastructure provision is expected to play a crucial role in reinforcing Flare’s commitment to decentralization and advancing accessibility to decentralized data across diverse applications and other chains.

 

“As the blockchain for data, we are excited that Google Cloud is joining our existing decentralized network of infrastructure providers who contribute to Flare. Our work together will help deliver a more robust decentralized smart contract platform that places decentralized data at its core,” said Hugo Philion, co-founder and CEO of Flare. The protocol said it is on a mission to provide decentralized applications to both its ecosystem and other networks with high-quality access to decentralized data, including price and time data series, blockchain event and state data, and Web2 API data.

 

Flare Joins Google for Startups Program

 

James Tromans, the head of Web3 at Google Cloud, emphasized the importance of data access at scale to elevate relevant blockchain use cases and enhance global adoption of the technology. Tromans stated that the company's becoming a validator on the Flare network will help support the protocol’s mission of providing real-time data to decentralized applications. In parallel, Google Cloud said the protocol has become part of the Google for Startups Program, which aims to accelerate the growth of Web3 startups.

 

The Google program is expected to accelerate the growth of Web3 startups by providing developers on the Flare network access to financial support from the US-based tech giant and its business partners. Reacting to the news of the partnership with Google Cloud, the network’s native token FLR surged 15% to around $0.02 with a market cap of $656 million at press time, according to CoinMarketCap data.

2024 has started off on a positive note for the crypto market. Besides the Bitcoin ETF and the air of excitement that it has created, several altcoins are seeing positive price movement. Along with more optimism from investors, many of these projects offer new and exciting uses for crypto and blockchain. One example of this is TIA, the native token of Celestia. TIA has just crossed the $20 mark, which represents a new all-time price high and places it in the top 40 cryptos by market cap.

 

Celestia (TIA) on the Rise

 

One of the main things that TIA has going for it is being attached to a very innovative project. Celestia is the first modular blockchain network that allows users to deploy blockchain without having to code from scratch and with little expertise required. Given the popularity of blockchain as a whole, this project has been very high in demand and this has been reflected in its token price. Since October 2023, TIA has been steadily on the rise, seeing major spikes in Both December 2023 and January 2024. In this month alone, the token has seen an over 67% increase in its value and this shows no signs of stopping. This is on top of its value growing 10 times what it was during the initial airdrop.

 

Also notable is the way investors have been interacting with TIA as it rises in price. Over the months, the price of TIA would see minor dips followed by aggressive market corrections. Many investors adopted the strategy of trying to buy the dip and then profiting when the price went back up. This was not always successful, however. Take Bombay Trillionaire, a crypto analyst who had tried to short the TIA token but failed to do so after it experienced massive demand from investors. Even though the token has set a new price high and is looking to reach new heights, it is not certain whether or not it will see a correction Some ambitious analysts expect that TIA will get to the $24 mark at some point and this will make it an even more prominent token.

 

Besides being in the top 40 tokens in terms of market cap, TIA is also listed on CoinGecko’s trending tokens list. Moving forward, a lot of its growth will likely be driven not just by the speculation about its token but the underlying blockchain. The blockchain sector as a whole seems to be entering a period of growth and this will mean that Celestia will be more high in demand. Making it easier for developers to deploy blockchains with efficiency will likely keep Celestia relevant for the foreseeable future. As 2024 unravels, the market will see if TIA maintains this momentum and gets new price highs.

Solana Mobile made a big impact last year when it introduced Saga, a smartphone designed specifically for cryptocurrency enthusiasts. The phone stood out because it had a built-in hardware wallet and supported decentralized apps. It was a success, and now Solana Mobile is working on a new, more affordable smartphone to attract a wider audience. According to a report by Coindesk, the upcoming Solana phone will have the same important features that made Saga popular among crypto users. The new phone will have a built-in Solana wallet, allowing users to securely store the SOL token, other cryptocurrencies, and NFTs. It will also come with a special app store that has a selection of decentralized apps (dApps) for users to explore.

 

However, Solana Mobile wants to make the new phone more appealing to a larger group of people by improving the hardware and lowering the price. Saga was originally quite expensive, priced at $1,000, which may have limited its appeal despite its interesting capabilities. The new phone will have updated components and specifications, including a potentially faster processor, better cameras, and other improvements. Most importantly, Solana Mobile plans to significantly reduce the price to make it more competitive and affordable compared to Saga.

 

A Motivation From the Success of Saga

 

Solana Mobile’s decision to release a new and more affordable cryptocurrency smartphone was inspired by the unexpected success of Saga phone. Although it initially struggled to attract buyers, it eventually gained a loyal following in the crypto community and caught the attention of investors interested in its token giveaways. Saga phones came with a pre-loaded amount of the BONK tokens and provided built-in support for claiming additional tokens. When crypto traders realized that the free tokens exceeded the $1,000 purchase price, demand for the limited supply of Saga phones skyrocketed. In secondary markets like eBay, prices reached as high as $3,200 per phone, more than three times the original cost.

 

Solana Mobile is now taking advantage of Saga’s popularity by improving the hardware and making crypto-related features more accessible to people who are curious about cryptocurrencies. Rather than only targeting experienced crypto users, a cheaper and more powerful Solana phone could show the usefulness of decentralized apps and digital wallets to everyday people. In addition, maintaining the core features of the first mobile phone can still appeal to its dedicated supporters and traders. It remains to be seen how successful this strategy will be and whether Solana Mobile can avoid the supply constraints and speculative frenzy that affected Saga. However, the goal is clear: to keep the unique benefits of cryptocurrencies while enhancing the overall smartphone experience.

 

If Solana Mobile can deliver on these promises with its new phone, while keeping the price reasonable for regular mobile users, it could be a significant step towards mainstream adoption of cryptocurrencies. More people would have the opportunity to experience the benefits of the decentralized internet and apps right from their pockets.

Klaytn and Finschia Foundations have announced a joint proposal for a merger, seeking to create a new mainnet that not only boasts technological superiority but also envisions becoming Asia’s premier Web3 ecosystem.

 

Objectives of Klaytn and Finschia’s Merger

 

The proposal, open for discussion with governance voting scheduled from January 26 to February 2, aims to consolidate the foundations into a single entity, combining their technological prowess, services, and extensive business networks. The primary objective of this proposed merger is to establish a new industry leader with a cutting-edge blockchain supporting both Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) and CosmWasm. This aims to attract Ethereum and Cosmos builders, capitalizing on the strengths of each ecosystem for enhanced interoperability. The mainnet aspires to create one of the most extensive Decentralized Application (DApp) ecosystems in Asia, bringing together South Korea and Japan’s leading blockchains, resulting in over 420 DApps.

 

Additionally, the proposed deal will see the merger of Klaytn’s robust networks in Korea, Singapore, and Vietnam with Finschia’s strong presence in Japan, Taiwan, Thailand, and Abu Dhabi. This strategic integration will enable interoperability between Klaytn’s Decentralized Finance (DeFi) and gaming services and Finschia’s NFT, payment, and AI services. As part of the merger, the team noted that a new integrated token, provisionally named PDT, will be issued. Holders of KLAY and FNSA will be able to claim this new token, usable on both LINE and Kakao messengers. The integrated token will feature a revamped tokenomics, with approximately 24% of the total supply burned, reducing the inflation rate to 5.2%. A new 3-Layer burning model will be introduced to sustain growth and ensure a balanced token ecosystem.

 

“We are excited to be taking the first step toward unlocking the enormous synergy of merging the public blockchains started by Kakao and LINE, which are both leading IT companies in Asia,” the Klaytn Foundation and Finschia Foundation said in a joint statement. “We will give our best to make this merger an opportunity to innovate and lead the Asian blockchain industry in both technology and adoption,” added the companies.

 

Business Initiatives and Expansion Plans

 

Should the proposal pass both Klaytn and Finschia’s governance voting processes, the foundations will immediately begin work on the chain merge and subsequent business initiatives. This includes infrastructure development for institutional investors, strengthening DeFi infrastructure with the launch of a native stablecoin, discovery, and onboarding of AI-based DApps, and enhancing the onboarding infrastructure for Web2 companies. Furthermore, the foundations will continue to develop messenger-based Web3 services and the digital commerce platform, acting as a springboard for Asia’s IT and entertainment enterprises. This merger is poised to create the largest Web3 business network in Asia, fostering communities of holders, developers, and partners in each Asian country.

Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume, has released its yearly report on the digital assets industry for 2023 and a possible outlook for the new year. In a blog post published on January 15, 2024, the company revealed that the industry witnessed a significant comeback with a 109% increase in total market capitalization after the year-long turbulence in 2022.

 

Market Resilience amidst Turbulence

 

The report, authored by the Binance research team, JieXuan Chua, CFA, Moulik Nagesh, Shivam Sharma, and Brian Chen, revealed that the market uptick was driven by substantial gains in the first (Q1) and fourth quarter (Q4) of 2023. Binance attributed the market performance in Q4 to the rise in optimism driven by the anticipated launch of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds, which was finally approved on January 10, 2024, by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The report also cited optimism around the upcoming Bitcoin halving in April as one of the critical factors that contributed significantly to the 109% increase in market cap in 2023. Furthermore, Binance said the broader financial market, marked by resilient global GDP growth and moderated inflation rates, greatly impacted the market growth for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

 

Market Analysis: DeFi vs. NFTs

 

In terms of segments, the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector saw a robust growth of 38.9% year-on-year (“YoY”) compared to the non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The rise of liquid staking tokens (“LSTs”) and LSTf are major contributors to the positive performance of DeFi in 2023. Additionally, the emergence of intent-centric architecture and the rising adoption of real-world assets also did an excellent job of pushing the DeFi sector for growth. For NFTs, the sector started picking up towards the end of the year. According to the report, the NFT market experienced a rebound in Q4 2023 after decreased interest in digital artworks and other collectibles following the NFT boom in 2021. The market recorded $1.7 billion in trading volume in December, with Bitcoin NFTs showing the most impressive growth.

 

The Binance report said the ongoing competition among NFT marketplaces emerged as a significant theme for the sector’s growth last year. The study also cited the imminent launch of the Blur-aligned Layer 2 platform, Blast, as a noteworthy development. Regarding SocialFi, the introduction of friend.tech in August 2023 propelled the sector into the limelight, showcasing the market’s potential and its allure for creators seeking to monetize content. Despite the initial success, activity on SocialFi platforms has waned. However, Binance believes the coming months will unveil whether there’s a potential resurgence in interest or if new trends will dominate the evolving landscape.

 

Eight Key Growth Themes for 2024

 

The Binance report revealed that on-chain metrics indicated a remarkable resurgence in gaming activity in 2023. The final week of the year witnessed a surge, with 12.6 million weekly unique active wallets—more than double the count at the beginning of the year, which stood at 5.8 million. With the imminent launch of multiple games by renowned gaming giants, 2024 is poised to be an exciting year for gamers worldwide. For 2024, Binance believes the crypto market will experience significant growth driven by eight key themes such as the Bitcoin ecosystem, ownership economy applications, artificial intelligence (AI), real-world assets (RWAs), on-chain liquidity, and institutional adoption.

Andrew Peel, the Head of Digital Assets at financial services giant Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS), has warned that the use of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin could negatively impact the US dollar. Peel said a potential paradigm shift in the way people view and interact with digital assets, including CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies), could weaken the US dollar’s dominance as a global currency.

 

Perception of Bitcoin and CBDCs May be Bad for the US Dollar

 

In an investment note on Friday, Peel highlighted “a paradigm shift in the global perception and use of digital assets” as a threat to the dollar. The report notes that the past 15 years of Bitcoin’s existence have seen global adoption grow at a “remarkable” rate. There are now 106 million people holding Bitcoin, with Bitcoin ATMs available to holders in more than 80 countries. In addition to the increase in the popularity and adoption of cryptocurrencies, Peel noted the recent approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The report states that this is a factor that supports the growth and adoption of cryptocurrencies and potentially threatens the dollar.

 

In addition to Bitcoin, Peel highlights the role played by CBDCs. The note explains that these central bank currencies could also weaken the dollar for many reasons. One such reason is a CBDC’s function as a tool for cross-border transactions, facilitating the transfer of funds without relying on the dollar. Peel wrote: “[CBDCs] hold the potential to establish a unified standard for cross-border payments, which could diminish the reliance on traditional intermediaries like SWIFT and the use of dominant currencies such as the dollar…With their increasing importance, dollar-backed stablecoins are set to have a profound impact on the financial sector, potentially reshaping how money is moved across borders.”

 

Despite warning about the effect of CBDCs on the dollar, especially with cross-border payments, Peel noted advantages of central bank currencies, including supporting global finance. The report states that CBDCs can significantly support innovation by automating transactions using smart contracts. This encourages the use of “programmable money”, making the possibility very real.

 

CBDCs So Far

 

More than 100 countries have either launched a CBDC or are currently working on one. According to the Atlantic Council’s CBDC Tracker, only 35 countries considered a CBDC as of May 2020. Now, 130 countries, 98% of the world’s GDP, are now exploring digital versions of their national currencies. The tracker shows that 11 countries have launched CBDCs, while 21 and 33 are in the pilot and development stages, respectively. In addition, there are currently 46 countries in the research phase. Last year, Morgan Stanley predicted in a research report that the stablecoin market should expect more government regulation as its popularity increases. However, the report suggested that the regulation may not be as accommodating as people might expect.

 

In November, Morgan Stanley offered a bullish prediction for the crypto sector. According to the company’s analysts in a report, Bitcoin will see an impressive bull run following the upcoming halving event expected in April. However, the report did not specify a price target.