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bitcoin-price-today-usd-96400-fomc-meeting

04.05.2025

Bitcoin Hits $96,400 Ahead of FOMC Meeting, Altcoins See Mixed Movement

In the ever-evolving landscape of financial markets, Bitcoin has once again become the center of attention as its price surged to a remarkable $96,400 just ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. This event marks a significant milestone in the history of cryptocurrencies and serves as an indicator of shifting market dynamics. As a seasoned expert in financial markets and trading, I will guide you through the implications of this surge, explore the factors driving Bitcoin's rise, and examine the mixed movement observed in altcoins during this volatile period.

 

A Deep Dive into Bitcoin's Price Surge

 

Bitcoin's ascent to $96,400 is emblematic of its continued allure among investors and speculators alike. Several factors could explain this meteoric rise. Firstly, there has been a renewed interest in digital assets as a hedge against inflation, especially amidst concerns about rising inflation rates globally. Central banks worldwide maintain an accommodative stance, which has increased liquidity, benefiting risk assets, including Bitcoin.

 

Secondly, institutional interest in Bitcoin has risen significantly over the past few years. Prominent financial institutions and corporations have been purchasing Bitcoin, driven by the belief that it is an alternative store of value comparable to gold. Additionally, the recent approval of Bitcoin-related financial products, such as ETFs, in various jurisdictions has further legitimized and boosted demand for the digital asset.

 

Another important factor is the increasing integration of Bitcoin into the broader financial ecosystem. Payment processors and platforms have begun to accept Bitcoin transactions, expanding its usability and enhancing its attractiveness to a broader audience. These developments have provided a favorable backdrop for Bitcoin's continued growth trajectory.

 

The Role of the FOMC Meeting

 

The timing of Bitcoin's price surge, coinciding with the FOMC meeting, is no mere coincidence. The FOMC, a component of the Federal Reserve, meets regularly to discuss and set U.S. monetary policy. Investors across all asset classes keenly watch these meetings for any signals that might indicate changes in interest rates, which can have wide-ranging effects on the economy and financial markets.

 

Often, ahead of such significant events, markets experience heightened volatility as traders attempt to position themselves for potential outcomes. Bitcoin's recent rise can be partially attributed to this anticipation, as traders speculate on the FOMC's stance, hoping to capitalize on its impact on asset prices. While Bitcoin is decentralized and not directly tied to monetary policy decisions, it remains sensitive to shifts in broader economic conditions influenced by such meetings.

 

Altcoin Movement: A Mixed Bag

 

Amid Bitcoin's impressive rally, altcoins — the alternative cryptocurrencies to Bitcoin — have experienced mixed movements. While some have followed in Bitcoin's footsteps, registering considerable gains, others have lagged or corrected. This dichotomy highlights the differentiated nature of the cryptocurrency market beyond Bitcoin.

 

The price movement of altcoins is subject to various factors, including market sentiment, technological developments, and unique value propositions. For example, Ethereum, often considered the silver to Bitcoin's gold, has seen significant interest due to its role in decentralized finance (DeFi) and the recent merge, which transitioned its network from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake, reducing its environmental footprint.

 

Conversely, some altcoins may struggle if their underlying projects face delays, regulatory scrutiny, or fail to deliver on their promises. Additionally, investor focus tends to shift to Bitcoin during significant price movements, potentially leading to underperformance across smaller altcoin markets as capital rotates towards the relative safety of Bitcoin.

 

Navigating the Market: Key Considerations for Traders

 

As Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape exhibit significant volatility, it remains crucial for traders and investors to approach the market with diligence and caution. Firstly, an understanding of risk management is paramount. Cryptocurrencies are notoriously volatile, and price swings can be abrupt. Employing stop-loss orders and keeping leverage in check can help mitigate risks.

 

Secondly, staying informed is essential. The rapidly changing nature of this market requires continuous education and awareness of macroeconomic factors, technological advancements, and regulatory developments. Engaging with reliable sources of information and participating in community discussions can provide valuable insights.

 

Lastly, having a diversified approach can prove beneficial. While Bitcoin may be the dominant player, the cryptocurrency market offers a plethora of opportunities across various projects and technologies. Balancing a portfolio with a mix of established and emerging altcoins can potentially optimize returns while spreading risk.

 

Conclusion: A New Epoch for Cryptocurrencies

 

The rise of Bitcoin to $96,400 ahead of the FOMC meeting signals a remarkable chapter in the cryptocurrency saga, underlined by growing mainstream acceptance and institutional involvement. While altcoins present a mixed landscape, their potential remains significant in driving innovation within the crypto ecosystem.

 

As an enlightened participant in these exciting yet unpredictable markets, it is crucial to adopt a disciplined approach, refine strategies, and remain vigilant of the evolving global financial landscape. By doing so, traders and investors can navigate the complexities of the cryptocurrency domain, seeking out opportunities for growth while managing inherent risks.

 

robinhood-revenues-rise-in-q1-gold

29.04.2025

Robinhood Revenues Rise in Q1, Gold Subscribers Hit 3.2m

In a remarkable display of financial growth, Robinhood has reported an impressive 50% year-on-year increase in revenue, reaching $927 million for the first quarter of 2025. This surge in profits was driven primarily by a multitude of factors including unprecedented net deposits, increased trading activity, and a growing demand for its premium subscription offering, Robinhood Gold.

 

Expanding Subscriber Base for Robinhood Gold

 

The premium subscription service, Robinhood Gold, has witnessed a significant uptick in subscribers, rising by 90% to reach a total of 3.2 million users. This expansion has been pivotal in bolstering the company's other revenue streams, which saw an impressive 54% increase, amounting to $54 million. The appeal of Robinhood Gold lies in its ability to offer premium services such as research reports, higher instant deposits, and lower margin rates, appealing to more serious investors and contributing substantially to the company's revenue model.

 

Sharp Increase in Profitability and Earnings Per Share

 

The company's financial performance is further exemplified by a more than twofold increase in net income, which soared to $336 million. This remarkable growth trajectory was also reflected in diluted earnings per share, which rose by an impressive 106% to stand at $0.37. This suggests a robust operational framework and effective cost management strategies that have successfully translated increased revenues into profitable growth.

 

Surge in Customer Engagement and Platform Assets

 

Customer engagement has also evidently strengthened, with 1.9 million more funded customers joining the platform over the year. This brings Robinhood's total funded customer base to an impressive 25.8 million. Concurrently, investment accounts have increased to 27 million, underscoring the platform’s growing appeal to both new and existing users.

 

Moreover, platform assets surged by 70% year-on-year, reaching $221 billion. Notably, this includes $41 billion managed by Registered Investment Advisors on TradePMR's platform, highlighting Robinhood’s integration with broader market structures and its appeal to institutional clients as well.

 

Transaction-Based Revenue Soars

 

Robinhood's transaction-based revenues rose by 77%, reaching $583 million. A significant portion of this growth can be attributed to a 100% rise in cryptocurrency trading revenues, which surged to $252 million. Additionally, Robinhood also recorded solid gains in both options and equities trading, illustrating a diversified and resilient trading ecosystem.

 

Boost in Net Interest Revenues

 

Net interest revenues also saw a notable rise of 14%, amounting to $290 million. This stream of revenue is vital as it provides a stable income source independent of market volatility, reflecting the effectiveness of Robinhood’s diversified revenue model.

 

Share Buyback and Continued Innovation

 

In light of these strong financial results, Robinhood’s board has authorized an additional $500 million share buyback, raising the total repurchase authorization to $1.5 billion. This move signifies confidence in the company’s ongoing growth and value creation capabilities for shareholders.

 

CEO Vlad Tenev has attributed the company's stellar performance to its proactive approach towards product innovation. He highlighted the successful rollout of several key initiatives, including Robinhood Strategies, Banking, and the AI-powered Cortex platform, designed to enhance user experience and attract a wider audience.

 

Conclusion: Robinhood's Bright Future

 

In conclusion, Robinhood's first quarter of 2025 has set a high benchmark for financial performance, driven by strategic expansion, product innovation, and increased market engagement. With its strong customer base, diversified revenue streams, and new technological initiatives, Robinhood is well-positioned to continue this growth trajectory, delivering value to its users and shareholders alike.

 

cardano-ada-surges-300-while-ruvi

24.04.2025

Cardano (ADA) Surges 300% While Ruvi AI (RUVI) Is Expected to 50x During Summer 2025

The cryptocurrency universe is a dynamic, ever-evolving sector that is capturing global attention. Among the numerous digital assets, Cardano (ADA) has commanded significant attention due to its past performances and potential future returns. However, in the rapidly changing financial landscape, real transformation is likely to come from groundbreaking innovators such as Ruvi AI. Unlike merely following crypto trends, Ruvi AI offers investors a unique opportunity to not only partake in the trends but to help define them.

 

Cardano's Promising Trajectory

 

Excitement is burgeoning among crypto enthusiasts as Cardano sets the stage for a potential 300% increase in value, potentially escalating from $0.70 to $2.65. This anticipated breakout from a Falling Wedge pattern, combined with heightened whale activity, has resurrected confidence in blockchain technology. While many are closely monitoring Cardano’s journey to possible new heights, it is crucial to recognize other investments that may offer even greater potential for explosive growth.

 

Ruvi AI: The Next Generation of Blockchain Innovation

 

While the developments surrounding Cardano are undoubtedly intriguing, they pale in comparison to the revolutionary possibilities presented by Ruvi AI. As a next-gen blockchain endeavor rooted in artificial intelligence, Ruvi AI provides investors seeking a competitive edge with a promising avenue. Its presale and specialized VIP Tier rewards system are structured to yield returns far surpassing those of traditional projects like Cardano.

 

Ruvi AI's Supercharged Presale: A Marriage of AI and Blockchain

 

Ruvi AI distinguishes itself not as just another blockchain project, but as an innovative confluence of blockchain technology and artificial intelligence aimed at addressing tangible world issues in business operations, creativity, and more. This compelling vision has sparked widespread interest, as evidenced by its presale success. Ruvi AI's practical applications extend beyond the limited scope of mere cryptocurrency trading or decentralized finance (DeFi).

 

The project harnesses blockchain to automate workflows, optimize business operations, and stimulate innovation across various sectors—an expansive vision promising substantial returns on investment (ROI). Investors are reassured by Ruvi AI’s transparent rewards architecture, characterized by advanced tokenomics and robust community incentives like the leaderboard rewards, which cater to both small-scale and large-scale investors.

 

Encouraging Engagement with Community Leaderboard Rewards

 

Ruvi AI has developed a community leaderboard rewards program to fuel engagement and participation among investors. Those topping the leaderboard are eligible for significant bonuses, making Ruvi AI an attractive high-reward investment prospect.

 

In comparison, Cardano’s notable 300% price uptick reflects market optimism but heavily depends on market sentiment and whale trading. While these factors undeniably contribute to growth, they lack novelty and sustainability in the longer term.

 

Why Ruvi AI Offers More Than Speculation

 

Ruvi AI breaks away from conventional models by integrating AI with blockchain, generating value that surpasses speculative trading limits. Its practical real-world applications, coupled with generous presale pricing, pave the way for a more promising growth trajectory.

 

Becoming Part of Ruvi AI

 

In the rapidly evolving crypto landscape, while projects like Cardano garner attention due to historical performance, true transformation lies in the hands of forward-thinking entities like Ruvi AI. Participants in Ruvi AI's presale are presented with the opportunity to multiply their wealth significantly—not merely by riding existing trends but by actively shaping the trends of tomorrow.

 

Engage with Ruvi AI's presale and step into a realm boasting a projected ROI of 15,900% alongside unparalleled innovation. As Cardano experiences growth, Ruvi AI is committed to building and defining the new frontier of cryptocurrency and blockchain applications.

 

probit-global-lists-seapt-ushering-in-a-new-era

19.04.2025

ProBit Global Lists SEAPT, Ushering in a New Era of Gamified Crypto Exploration

ProBit Global, a prominent cryptocurrency exchange known for its broad selection of digital assets, has recently announced its listing of SEAPT, a groundbreaking token set to revolutionize the way users engage with blockchain technology. As financial markets and trading continue to evolve, the integration of gamification within the crypto ecosystem represents a burgeoning area of innovation. SEAPT stands at the forefront of this movement, aiming to enhance user interaction and adoption through an immersive, game-like experience.

 

The Rise of Gamified Crypto Exploration

 

In recent years, gamification has permeated various industries, effectively transforming how people interact with products and services. In the realm of cryptocurrencies, this concept involves incorporating game-design elements in non-game contexts to boost engagement and simplify complex processes. By merging blockchain capabilities with engaging user experiences, gamified crypto exploration seeks to attract a broader audience, particularly those who may find traditional investment and trading too daunting.

 

SEAPT, as listed on ProBit Global, epitomizes this trend by offering a platform where users can engage in activities reminiscent of gaming. This not only demystifies cryptocurrency trading but also provides educational benefits, equipping users with the knowledge necessary to navigate the crypto space more effectively. The strategic move by ProBit Global to list SEAPT aligns with its mission to diversify blockchain solutions and entice users with innovative projects.

 

Understanding SEAPT: Features and Benefits

 

SEAPT is designed to engage users through competitive challenges, rewarding activities, and interactive learning modules. It leverages blockchain technology to offer transparency, security, and decentralization in its processes. Users can embark on virtual quests, participate in strategy-building exercises, and earn rewards in the form of tokens upon achieving specific objectives. This approach not only incentivizes participation but also builds a loyal user base that can benefit from the intrinsic value of the tokens earned.

 

Moreover, SEAPT's rewards system is designed to encourage both new and seasoned investors to participate actively. By incorporating elements such as leaderboards, achievements, and community challenges, users remain engaged, continually honing their investment strategies while gaining real-time insights into market dynamics. This gamified model serves to build confidence, reduce entry barriers, and support sustained user interaction with the platform.

 

Implications for the Financial Markets

 

The listing of SEAPT on ProBit Global signals a broader shift in how financial markets are adapting to new technological paradigms. As crypto adoption continues to rise, the need for platforms that provide accessibility and education becomes increasingly evident. Gamification, as exemplified by SEAPT, helps satisfy this need by making complex concepts more comprehensible and engaging for users of all backgrounds.

 

This trend also underscores the transition towards more user-centric financial products. In traditional finance, the focus has often been on product differentiation through complex features. In contrast, the gamification of crypto platforms emphasizes user experience and knowledge expansion, potentially leading to greater democratization of financial markets. This approach also aligns with the ethos of decentralized finance (DeFi), which seeks to create open-access financial systems.

 

ProBit Global's Strategic Vision

 

By listing SEAPT, ProBit Global not only expands its diverse offering of digital assets but also sets a precedent for how exchanges can integrate innovative projects that leverage gamification. This move reflects a strategic vision aimed at addressing the needs of a dynamic market ecosystem. As exchanges compete for user acquisition and retention, those that can transform crypto engagement through novel techniques, like gamification, will likely gain a competitive edge.

 

ProBit Global’s forward-thinking strategy is not only beneficial for its user base but also exemplifies leadership in fostering an environment conducive to technological advancement within the crypto space. By prioritizing projects like SEAPT, the exchange contributes to a vibrant ecosystem where new ideas can flourish, ultimately helping to normalize crypto interactions for everyday users.

 

The Future of Gamified Crypto Exploration

 

The introduction of gamified platforms such as SEAPT represents just the beginning of a transformative journey for the crypto industry. The sustained interest and engagement generated by these models suggest a promising future where financial literacy and crypto adoption can coexist symbiotically. As users become more knowledgeable and comfortable with their interactions, the potential for growth within the sector appears limitless.

 

In conclusion, ProBit Global's listing of SEAPT is a landmark development, underscoring the potential of gamification in making crypto accessible and engaging. This initiative not only enhances user experiences but also sets the stage for transformative growth in the financial markets. As more projects embrace this innovative approach, the landscape of crypto exploration is poised for evolutionary change, characterized by greater inclusivity and participation.

 

data-shows-china

14.04.2025

Data show 'sky won't fall' for China's trade

In the first quarter of 2025, China's foreign trade showed steady performance, with the total goods trade volume increasing by 1.3 percent year-on-year to 10.3 trillion yuan ($1.41 trillion), according to the General Administration of Customs.

 

Exports rose 6.9 percent to 6.13 trillion yuan, while imports declined 6 percent to 4.17 trillion yuan year-on-year. Although imports fell in the first three months of this year, the growth rate of the overall import and export value has rebounded — it fell 2.2 percent in January, remained unchanged in February and grew by 6 percent in March.

 

The data indicate that the country has maintained its position as the world's second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years, with an average annual growth rate of 5.4 percent, and its share in global imports has also steadily increased from 7.9 percent to 10.5 percent.

 

The growth rate of China's trade with the countries and regions taking part in the construction of the Belt and Road was 2.2 percent in the first quarter year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the overall average. China's trade with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations hit 1.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.1 percent year-on-year.

 

In the first quarter, the imports and exports of mechanical and electrical products, particularly household appliances, laptops, electronic components as well as automatic data processing equipment parts, ships and marine engineering equipment, amounted to 5.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7 percent, making them key drivers of the overall growth of the country's foreign trade.

 

It is worth noting that foreign-invested enterprises still play an important role in China's foreign trade. In the first quarter, the import and export value of foreign-invested enterprises in China was 2.99 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.4 percent year-on-year, accounting for 29 percent of the total and achieving growth for four consecutive quarters.

 

In the first quarter of this year, there were more than 67,000 foreign-invested enterprises involved in imports and exports, a record high in the same period over the past three years. They accounted for more than 40 percent of China's exports of high-tech products such as electronic information products, biomedicine and medical instruments.

 

As the restrictions on foreign investment access in China's manufacturing industry have been completely lifted, the green, digital and intelligent transformation of relevant industries, and the market-oriented, legal and international first-class business environment of China are both conducive to helping foreign-invested enterprises fully display their advantages in China and gain an advantage in global competition.

 

Private enterprises have always been the main force of China's foreign trade, and their import and export value in the first quarter was 5.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8 percent year-on-year, accounting for 56.8 percent of China's foreign trade, an increase of 2.4 percentage points over the same period last year.

 

Private enterprises have become an important force fueling China's innovation-driven growth, promoting the high-end, intelligent and green transformation of the manufacturing sector. They are indispensable to China's new energy products continuing to play an important role in the global green transformation. In the first quarter, China's exports of wind turbines, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles increased by 43.2 percent, 18.8 percent and 8.2 percent year-on-year respectively.

 

Meanwhile, the majority of export companies have quickly responded to the diversified demands of the global market. Some traditional industries have launched customized products to adapt to the fast-changing market.

 

At present, China's exports are undoubtedly facing a complex and severe external situation, as the US administration's abuse of tariffs is inevitably having a negative impact on global trade, including that of China. But the country has resolutely implemented necessary countermeasures not only to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, but also to defend international trade rules and international fairness and justice.

 

China will unswervingly promote high-level opening-up to the outside world and carry out mutually beneficial and win-win economic and trade cooperation with all countries.

 

In the process, China will never stop building a diversified market and deepening cooperation with all parties in the industry and supply chains, which will not only facilitate the development of the other party, but also enhance the resilience of the Chinese economy. China's huge domestic market, complete industrial system, efficient policymaking and effective execution system will continuously serve as stabilizers of the situation, helping the country counter external changes and risks with domestic stability and certainty.

donald-trump-unleashes-new-wave

09.04.2025

China sets 84% tariffs on all US products in reaction to Trump's 104%

China has implemented brand new tariffs of 84% on the importation of all US products, a measure that caused stock markets to decline further, heightening anxieties of further intensification in Donald Trump’s trade conflict.

 

The Chinese finance ministry announced on Wednesday that it would enforce 84% tariffs on US goods starting Thursday, an increase from the previously stated 34%.

 

This decision followed shortly after new tariffs on imports to the United States from multiple economies surged, with tariffs placed on Chinese commodities since Trump's return to the White House hitting an astounding 104%.

 

China’s response caused stock markets, which had tumbled on Wednesday, to fall even more with key indices down in the UK, Germany, France, and Spain. The FTSE 100 in London dropped by 3.5%, Germany's Dax index fell by 3.8%, France’s Cac 40 decreased by 3.9%, and Spain's Ibex dipped by 3.2%.

 

Prior to the announcement of the 84% tariffs, the Chinese government stated it was not looking to engage in a trade conflict, but “will never stand by and let the legitimate rights and interests of the Chinese people be harmed and stripped.”

 

The global economy has been disturbed since broad US tariffs of 10% went into effect over the weekend, causing significant market sell-offs globally and inciting worries of a recession.

 

The declines in Europe followed another volatile day on several Asian markets. Japan’s Nikkei index closed almost 4% down, while Taiwan’s leading stock index was 5.8% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recovered some earlier losses to end 0.4% lower, and South Korea’s Kospi 200 index dropped by 1.8%.

 

Meanwhile, China’s stock markets rose, seemingly weathering the challenges after government measures. The SSE composite index in Shanghai closed 1.1% higher, while the Shenzhen SE composite increased by 2.2%.

 

Oil prices dropped for a fifth consecutive day on Wednesday, reaching the lowest level in four years, since February 2021, due to concerns that a global trade conflict would lessen demand and impact economic growth negatively. Brent crude oil futures prices declined to as low as $58.47.

 

The US tariffs are specifically designed for certain countries based on a formula criticized by economists, which divides the trade in goods deficit by twice the total import value.

 

“President Trump possesses unwavering determination and will not break,” press secretary Karoline Leavitt stated on Tuesday. “And America will not falter under his leadership.”

 

US stocks declined on Tuesday for the fourth consecutive trading day following Trump's tariff announcement last week, with the S&P 500 closing below 5,000 for the first time in nearly a year.

 

Beijing has accused the US of misusing trade policies to undermine China, and of failing to uphold commitments under numerous agreements including the phase one trade deal signed during Trump’s first term, and of “systematically ramping up economic and other forms of pressure against China.”

 

Trump asserts his policy will revive the country's lost manufacturing hub by compelling companies to move back to the US. However, numerous business specialists and economists question how quickly—if at all—this could happen, warning of increased inflation as tariffs drive up prices.

 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the new tariffs were at their “maximum” levels, and expressed optimism that talks would reduce them.

china-donald-trump-tariffs-recession

04.04.2025

China retaliates strongly against Trump’s ‘bullying’ tariffs amid rising global recession concerns

China has responded forcefully to Donald Trump’s “bullying” tariffs, raising fears that the intensifying trade war might cause a global recession and triggering fresh chaos in the financial markets.

 

Beijing retaliated on Friday with 34% additional punitive tariffs on all U.S. imports, mirroring the U.S. decision and worsening a sell-off in global stock markets.

 

Since Trump’s Rose Garden announcement on Wednesday evening, about $5 trillion (£4 trillion) in value has been lost from global stock markets, analysts calculated.

 

In the UK, the FTSE 100 index of leading shares fell more than 7% from Monday, marking its worst trading week since late February 2020, when concern over the Covid-19 pandemic was overwhelming the markets.

 

The significant escalation in trade tensions between the two largest economies in the world has heightened concerns among investors regarding risks to global growth.

 

The chair of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve, warned that the trade war would lead to “higher inflation and slower growth,” as Jerome Powell resisted Trump's calls to lower interest rates.

 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned that the escalating trade war could impact global economic growth. The tariffs “pose a significant risk to the global outlook amid sluggish growth,” according to IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva.

 

China’s retaliation came after Trump imposed 34% tariffs on Chinese goods, which were already subject to a 20% levy, increasing the total levy to 54%. He also imposed substantial tariffs on neighboring Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand, through which billions of dollars of Chinese exports are processed en route to the U.S.

 

Trump responded on his social media platform Truth Social on Friday, stating: “CHINA PLAYED IT WRONG, THEY PANICKED – THE ONE THING THEY CANNOT AFFORD TO DO!”

 

The UK chancellor, Rachel Reeves, said ministers would continue discussions with Washington, hoping that the 10% levy on UK exports could be removed. The UK offers a series of concessions, including reducing the £1 billion-a-year digital services tax for some of the largest tech firms.

 

“We are committed to doing everything possible to secure the best deal for British industry, working closely with them to protect prosperity and jobs here in the UK,” she stated.

 

Financial markets are anticipating an additional three interest rate cuts from the Bank of England by the year's end, weighing the risks of slower growth, as some analysts caution that a slowdown may compel Reeves to increase taxes in her autumn budget.

 

“Given her adherence to fiscal rules, the central expectation must be that if she remains committed, significant tax increases in the autumn are likely,” expressed Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

 

On Wall Street, the tech-heavy Nasdaq index fell into bear market territory, having lost over 20% of its value since the sell-off began, declining by 5.8% on Friday alone. The S&P 500 dropped 9.1%, marking its worst five-day trading stretch since March 2020.

 

Oil prices also dropped significantly, as experts revised their forecasts for global growth, with Brent crude decreasing by 7% to about $65 a barrel.

 

Georgieva urged calm. “It’s crucial to avoid actions that could further harm the global economy. We urge the US and its trade partners to work collaboratively to ease trade tensions and minimize uncertainty.”

 

Little sign of moderation appeared in China’s strong response to the Trump tariffs. The state council tariff commission in China stated that the U.S. approach “violates international trade rules, seriously undermines China’s legitimate rights and interests, and constitutes a typical unilateral bullying practice.”

 

In Arlington, Virginia, on Friday, Powell indicated that the outlook remains too uncertain to determine the direction of monetary policy. “It’s too early to say what the appropriate policy stance should be. I understand the uncertainty people feel, but it’s a transitional process.”

 

He provided a stark assessment of the potential impact of Trump’s policies. “While uncertainty prevails, it’s now becoming evident that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than initially expected,” he noted. “The anticipated economic impacts, which will include higher inflation and slower growth, are likely to match this magnitude.”

 

The president has promised voters his “liberation day” policies will revitalize jobs and investment in the U.S. However, investors worry that the likely higher prices will stifle consumer demand in the U.S. and slow down export-dependent economies worldwide.

 

Market instability has also been exacerbated by Trump’s unpredictability, making it impossible to foresee whether he will negotiate some tariff reductions for concessions or opt for further escalation.

 

On Friday alone, Trump asserted “MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE,” yet four hours later mentioned he had a “very productive call” with the Vietnamese leader, To Lam, who, according to Trump, offered to reduce that country’s tariffs.

 

The U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, dismissed the Wall Street chaos on Friday, suggesting it was part of the administration’s strategy to reshape the U.S. economy.

 

“Markets are declining because they rely on the stock values of companies embedded in production modes detrimental to the U.S.,” he remarked.

 

Nonetheless, in the UK, some economists proposed the tariffs might have only a moderate impact. James Smith, an economist at ING, stated: “The overall impact of tariffs on Britain’s GDP is likely around 0.2%. Not enough to decisively shift the UK growth outlook. Keep in mind, there are positive growth factors this year, especially from government spending.”

cfpb-subprime-mortgage-housing

29.03.2025

With the CFPB weakened, could risky lending make a comeback?

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the banking watchdog created after the subprime mortgage meltdown and the 2008 global financial crisis, has been thrown into chaos as the Trump administration works to drastically limit its operations.

 

Last month, workers at the CFPB were told to stop working, effectively shutting down the agency, though that order has since been challenged by a federal judge.

 

Although the CFPB, which is tasked with ensuring banks, lenders and other financial companies play fair with consumers, is severely weakened, Americans shouldn’t be too worried about a repeat of the subprime mortgage crisis that led to its creation, experts told CNN. Lenders and banks are currently more stringently regulated than they were in the years leading up to the crisis, and Americans who borrow money are more protected.

 

Still, with the hobbling of an agency that often acts as a safety net for consumers, Americans may need to become their own consumer advocates when dealing with lenders of all types.

 

“The CFPB’s mission is to protect individuals. After the financial crisis, we saw there were a lot of individuals who had been taken advantage of,” said John Griffin, a finance professor at The University of Texas at Austin who has argued that rampant fraud played a role in the financial crisis. “But I don’t think the CFPB would be able to stop another financial crisis.”

 

The agency, which was a brainchild of Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren when she was a Harvard Law professor, was created as part of Dodd-Frank, a 2010 federal law passed in an attempt to correct the financial vulnerabilities that contributed to the global financial crisis. The CFPB has since delivered $19.7 billion in consumer relief, with 195 million people eligible for that relief, according to the agency.

 

“Gutting consumer protections while simultaneously permitting financial firms to take on greater risk is a dangerous combination,” Warren said in a statement to CNN. “Working families cannot afford for policymakers to repeat the mistakes of the past.”

 

The CFPB did not respond to a request for comment on the impact of its recent changes.

 

A safer home loan market?

 

Buying a home is usually the biggest purchase Americans make in their lifetimes. Although it’s always been important to fully understand the terms of a loan when taking out a mortgage, that may take on even greater importance if the CFPB is diminished.

 

Still, the home loan market is safer now than it once was, said Ira Rheingold, executive director of the National Association of Consumer Advocates.

 

“When Dodd-Frank passed, it included mortgage reform,” Rheingold said. “The types of loans that were being made that created the subprime crisis really can’t be made anymore, because they would be violating the law.”

 

The housing meltdown of 2008 occurred partly because banks and lenders gave out risky home loans to people who couldn’t afford them. Those mortgages were then bundled into complex financial products that collapsed when homeowners started defaulting on their loans.

 

The meltdown led to a crash in home prices and millions of foreclosures.

 

Home loans that required little-to-no proof of income were common before 2008, but today, such loans are rare, said Laurie Goodman, founder of the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute.

 

“Prior to the financial crisis, income wasn’t adequately documented, you sort of took the borrower’s word for it,” she said. “Today, a ‘no doc’ loan would be extremely foreign.”

 

Housing market protections codified into law in the years after the financial crisis also include stronger lending standards and clearer disclosures for loan holders.

 

Here’s what you should know

 

However, the defanging of the CFPB would still strip away vital protections for consumers, said Griffin.

 

“Gutting an organization like the CFPB does hurt investors on smaller financial transactions where they can get taken advantage of,” he said. “The CFPB has played a role to provide additional scrutiny to go after unjust fees or unjust financial transactions.”

 

When borrowing money for a home, Americans should pay close attention to the terms of the loan, ensuring there are no hidden fees or relationships. At a time when mortgage rates hover just under 7%, borrowers should shop around to multiple lenders to ensure the most favorable terms.

 

The agency protects consumers from more than just predatory mortgage loans, though. Its broad purpose is to protect from financial abuses in general, including those from credit card companies, auto loans and student loans.

 

Rheingold recommended that consumers continue to file complaints with the CFPB when they have issues with financial products or services. If the CFPB doesn’t take immediate action, your state’s attorney general or legal services programs may still file a lawsuit against a bad-behaving company if you raise the issue to them, he said.

 

Some fear that financial companies could grow increasingly emboldened to engage in predatory practices like hidden fees and unfair loan terms, though it’s hard to predict exactly what those abuses would be.

 

“Will we go back and make the exact same mistakes as we have in the past? We probably won’t. But we’ll make a different set of mistakes,” said Goodman.

bessent-recession-comments

24.03.2025

Scott Bessent: ‘I can’t guarantee’ America will avoid a recession

Wall Street plunged last week after President Donald Trump said he was not ruling out a recession and that Americans should expect “a period of transition” across the economy. Since then, various administration officials have sought to reassure investors that there’s no need to panic.

 

“Donald Trump is bringing growth to America. I would never bet on recession. No chance,” Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” over the weekend. Meanwhile, on the same program, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said “there are no guarantees” there won’t be a recession.

 

He doubled down on his response Tuesday morning, telling Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo, “I can’t guarantee anything… But what I can guarantee you is that there is no reason we need to have a recession.”

 

That’s a contrast in the tone Bessent has previously struck when responding to questions about the liklihood of a recession.

 

“There’s going to be a detox period,” Bessent said earlier this month in a CNBC interview. Then, in another CNBC interview last week, he denied that a “detox period” in any way implies a recession.

 

“Not at all,” Bessent said, “it will depend on how quickly the baton gets handed off. Our goal is to have a smooth transition.”

 

Rising recession odds

 

Forecasts of a pending recession have picked up substantially in recent weeks, amid a heated back-and-forth over Trump’s tariff threats and the slew of new tariffs that have gone into effect.

 

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who served under the Clinton administration, said in a CNN interview Friday that he believes there’s about a 50% chance of a recession occurring, with the risk “rising every day.”

 

Even as markets got off to a better start this week compared to last week’s brutal drop, Summers said his forecast hasn’t changed. “The huge sense of policy uncertainty, the chilled spending, is still with us,” he said in a separate interview with CNN on Tuesday morning.

 

In a recent note, JPMorgan economists penciled in a 40% chance the US economy enters a recession, a 10 percentage point increase from earlier this year. The revision resulted from ramped-up tariffs that the bank’s economists view as capable of putting a substantial drag on business activity to the point that it “throws the US economy and global economy into a recession.”

 

Recent surveys indicated that businesses are delaying investments and seeing revenue decline as customers put off purchases, in part due to tariffs.

 

Additionally, consumer spending, the backbone of the US economy that accounts for more than two-thirds of GDP, appears to be getting less and less sturdy.

The latest read on consumer spending shows that it dropped by way more than economists expected. That comes as retail sales came in much weaker than expected last month, following a decline in January.

us-pce-spending-inflation

19.03.2025

Consumer spending rebounded in February, but inflation is still above target

Americans increased their spending last month after taking a breather in January, while inflation was a mixed bag, new Commerce Department data showed Friday.

 

As it stood in February, America’s economic foundation remained fairly solid. However, the latest data doesn’t include the elephant in the room: President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy.

 

Recently imposed tariffs on auto imports and a looming slew of other levies stand to ding America’s economic engine and drive prices higher, economists warn.

 

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.5% in February from the year before, holding steady with what was seen in January, according to Commerce Department data released Friday. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, unchanged from January.

 

Economists expected that falling energy prices and stabilizing food prices would help keep the disinflationary trend at hand, and that was indeed the case: Energy prices fell 1.1% for the month while food prices eased just slightly to 1.5% from 1.6%.

 

Forecasts called for the PCE price index to be unchanged from January’s preliminary 2.5% rate.

 

However, one critical barometer — the core PCE index, which serves as a gauge of underlying inflation — came in slightly hotter than economists expected.

 

Excluding food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile, the closely watched core PCE price index rose 0.4% for the month and 2.8% from a year before, accelerating from 2.7% in January.

 

Friday’s core PCE data “suggests that inflation still remains sticky, despite signs of softening in recent months,” Robert Ruggirello, chief investment officer, Brave Eagle Wealth Management, wrote in a note. “While tariffs are likely to add a one-off shock to inflation, it remains very unclear on how long the tariffs will last, as it’s very possible that a future trade deal leads to reduced or even no tariffs.”

 

Consumer spending rebounded in February, rising 0.4% for the month. In January, spending was weaker than initially reported and fell by 0.3%.

slower-economic-growth-is-likely-ahead

15.03.2025

CNBC Fed Survey: Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey

Respondents to the March CNBC Fed Survey have raised the risk of recession to the highest level in six months, cut their growth forecast for 2025 and raised their inflation outlook.

 

Much of the change appears to stem from concern over fiscal policies from the Trump administration, especially tariffs, which are now seen by them as the top threat to the US economy, replacing inflation. The outlook for the S&P 500 declined for the first time since September.

 

The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January. The January number had dropped to a three-year low and looked to have reflected initial optimism following the election of President Trump.  But like many consumer and business surveys, the recession probability now shows considerable concern about the outlook.

 

"We've had an abundance of discussions with investors who are increasingly concerned the Trump agenda has gone off the rails due to trade policy," said Barry Knapp of Ironsides Macroeconomics. "Consequently, the economic risks of something more insidious than a soft patch are growing."

 

"The degree of policy volatility is unprecedented,'' said John Donaldson, director of fixed income at Haverford Trust.

 

The average GDP forecast for 2025 declined to 1.7% from 2.4%, a sharp markdown that ended consecutive increases in the three prior surveys dating back to September. GDP is forecast to bounced back to 2.1% in 2026, in line with prior forecasts.

 

"The risks to consumers' spending are skewed to the downside," said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research. "Alongside a frozen housing market and less spending across state and local governments, there is meaningful downside to current estimates of 2025 GDP."

 

Most continue to believe the Fed will cut rates at least twice and won't hike rates, even if faced with persistently higher prices and weaker growth. Three-quarters forecast two or more quarter-point cuts this year. Part of the reason is that two-thirds believe that tariffs will result in one-time price hikes rather than a broader outbreak of inflation. But the policy uncertainty has created a wider range of views on the Fed than normal with 19% believing the Fed won't cut at all.

 

Still, higher tariffs and weaker growth are a dilemma for the Fed.

 

"Powell is really stuck here because of the tariff overhang," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer, Bleakley Financial Group. "If he gets more worried about growth because of them and cuts rates as unemployment rises but then Trump removes all the tariffs, he's jumped the gun."

 

More than 70% of respondents believe tariffs are bad for inflation, jobs and growth. 34% say tariffs will decrease US manufacturing with 22% saying they will result in no change. Thirty-seven percent of respondents believe tariffs will end up in greater manufacturing output. More than 70% believe the DOGE effort to reduce government employment is bad for growth and jobs but will be modestly deflationary.

 

"A global trade war, haphazard DOGE cuts to government jobs and funding, aggressive immigrant deportations, and dysfunction in DC threaten to push what was an exceptionally performing economy into recession," said Mark Zandi, chief economist, Moody's Analytics.

asia-markets-live-bank-of-japan

10.03.2025

Asia-Pacific markets rise as Hong Kong tech stocks rally; Baidu shares pop 12%

Asia-Pacific markets rose on Tuesday, tracking gains on Wall Street, which ticked up after U.S. retail sales data appeared to ease recession concerns.

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index led gains in Asia, rising 2.29% in its last hour on the back of strong moves in tech giants like Baidu, which was up 12.11% as at 3.45 p.m. local time.

 

Meanwhile, mainland China's CSI 300 advanced 0.27% to end the day at 4,007.72.

 

Investors will be keeping a close watch on Japanese markets, as the Bank of Japan kicks off its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 0.5% when the meeting concludes on Wednesday.

 

The BOJ's two-day meeting coincides with the U.S. Federal Reserve, with the latter also expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

 

Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 ended the day 1.20% higher at 37,845.42, while the broader Topix index rose 1.29% to 2,783.56.

 

Over in South Korea, the Kospi index closed flat at 2,612.34 while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.27% to end at 745.54.

 

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 ended the day flat at 7,860.40, paring gains from earlier in the session.

 

India's benchmark Nifty 50 added 1.20%, while the BSE Sensex increased 1.07% as at 1.15 p.m. local time.

 

U.S. futures edged down, even after all three benchmarks made a comeback from a four-week decline exacerbated by falling consumer confidence and U.S. President Donald Trump's chaotic tariff policy rollout.

 

The S&P 500 gained 0.64% to close at 5,675.12, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.31% and ended at 17,808.66. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced 353.44 points, or 0.85%, to end at 41,841.63.

 

The 30-stock index was bolstered by gains in Walmart and International Business Machines. All three of the major averages posted back-to-back gains.

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index traded more than 2% higher on Tuesday.

 

Many major Chinese companies are listed on the index, which is up 22.88% since the start of the year. The strong gains are led by tech giants.

 

The Hang Seng Tech Index was up 3.28% as at 2.43 p.m. local time. Top performers include Baidu which added 11.79%, NIO Inc was up 8.03% and Li Auto which rose 5.99%.

 

Swiss investment bank Julius Baer has downgraded its "long-standing constructive stance" on U.S. equities and is now looking out for opportunities in other markets.

 

"With U.S. equities in oversold territory and a short-term countertrend bounce likely, we see this as an opportunity to further diversify into non-U.S. markets in the coming weeks," Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy research at Julius Baer, wrote in a Tuesday note.

 

"Whether this divergence is sustainable hinges on whether the U.S. slowdown remains contained or escalates into a full-blown recession," he added.

 

For instance, Racheter expects the rotation into non-U.S. equities to persist in the case of a moderate slowdown in the U.S. economy. However, he said a recession in the world's largest economy is likely to trigger a broader bear market globally.

 

Racheter is playing the European market with Swiss equities — which offer a "combination of defensive quality and reasonable valuations" — and German mid-caps.

 

In Asia, he is overweight on Chinese equities "which are in a cyclical bull market" and Indian names which "provide long-term structural growth exposure."

 

Shares in Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer Nio rallied on Tuesday, rising 17.24% as at 11.57 a.m. local time.

 

This comes on the back of its partnership with Chinese battery manufacturer Contemporary Amperex Technology.

 

As part of this, the companies will build a battery swapping network for passenger vehicles and provide efficient recharging solutions for users. They are also seeking to unify industry technical standards, enhance capital and business collaboration, according to a Tuesday announcement.

 

Shares in CATL were flat after the announcement.— Amala Balakrishner

 

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index traded 2.27% higher at 11.15 a.m. local time.

 

Top performers include Baidu, which surged 9.94%, Alibaba Group Holdings, which rose 5.31%, and Tencent Music Entertainment Group which was up 5.93%.

 

The Hang Seng Tech Index ETF shows the day's moves:

 

Spot gold appreciated 0.39% hit a fresh record high of $3,013.35 per ounce on Tuesday morning Singapore time.

 

The price of the precious metal surged ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting that concludes Wednesday stateside.

 

Market watchers expect the U.S. central bank to hold interest rates in March and cut in June.

 

Gold does not accrue interest and is seen as a safe haven asset, so its price tends to rise when rates fall and the economic environment is uncertain.

 

Shares in tech giant Baidu surged as much as 9.94% in early trade on Tuesday, after it launched two new artificial intelligence models.

 

The launches include a reasoning-focused model that the company said rivals DeepSeek's model.

 

Shares in Chinese automaker BYD rose as much as 8.85% shortly after the open, following its announcement of a new technology that allows electric cars to be charged at a much faster rate.

 

Shares in Japanese insurer Tokio Marine Holdings rose as much as 5.03% on Tuesday, extending its gains for the fifth-straight trading session.

 

Australia's central bank is more cautious than the market about further policy easing, following its interest rate cut last month, according to Reuters.

 

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% in February — its first easing since November 2020.

 

"The February decision reflected a judgement by the board that it was the right time to take some restrictiveness away, but the board were more cautious than the market about prospects for further easing," the central bank's Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said Tuesday.

 

Hunter — who also heads the RBA's economics unit — said she was echoing recent comments by the central bank Governor Michele Bullock and Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.

 

Australia's economy expanded 1.3% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, accelerating for the first time since September 2023.

 

The GDP growth surpassed the 1.2% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters, as well as the 1.1% climb forecast by the RBA.

 

While stocks were on pace to post another positive session on Monday following their sell-off over the past few weeks, more volatility may be coming down the pike, according to Rob Haworth of U.S. Bank Asset Management.

 

"The surprising thing and the challenge for the market has been the fluctuation of tariffs with our biggest trading partners," the senior investment strategist said. "Volatility is probably in the cards for at least the next couple of weeks and could extend beyond that depending upon what the back-and-forth looks like when it comes to tariffs."

 

The strategist's remarks come as President Trump's temporary tariff exemptions for some goods imported from Canada and Mexico are set to expire on April 2.

 

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday that there will be economic uncertainty around tariffs for another few weeks.

 

"Absolutely, between now and April 2, there'll be some uncertainty," Hassett said on "Squawk Box," referring to the scheduled date for the Trump administration's "reciprocal" tariff plans to be revealed.

 

Hassett did say that there should be "absolute clarity" about the administration's goals once the reciprocal tariffs are worked out.